The Tokenization Boom: Why the Future is Bigger and Closer Than Experts Predict?

Published On : February 17, 2025

For years, leading consulting firms and financial institutions have tried to forecast the trajectory of tokenization, but their estimates vary dramatically. While McKinsey predicts a $2 trillion tokenized market by the end of the decade, BCG projects $16 trillion—a staggering $14 trillion gap. Such discrepancies highlight the uncertainty surrounding tokenization’s true potential.

Since 2017, tokenization has been tested across nearly every asset class worldwide. Today, over $50 billion worth of stocks, bonds, and real estate are already tokenized, with financial giants like BlackRock, Franklin Templeton, and Apollo making substantial investments in the space. When you add the $200 billion in stablecoins—essentially tokenized dollars—the total value of real-world assets (RWAs) on-chain already exceeds $250 billion.

But what happens when tokenization reaches its full potential? We believe the market will expand from $250 billion today to $30 trillion by 2030, driven by regulatory clarity in the U.S. and growing institutional adoption.

A Game-Changer for the U.S. and Global Markets

The U.S. government is increasingly recognizing the potential of tokenization, particularly through stablecoins. From the Federal Reserve and Congress to the newly appointed Crypto Czar, regulators see stablecoins as a way to reinforce the dollar’s dominance in the digital economy. If the U.S. dollar has been the global reserve currency in Web2, why not extend that dominance into Web3?

With this shift in mindset, we anticipate new legislation that will define token classifications and stablecoin market structures. This long-awaited regulatory clarity will pave the way for blockchain’s integration into U.S. capital markets—a crucial factor that previous forecasts have overlooked. As legal barriers fade, institutional adoption will accelerate, further driving tokenization’s expansion.

Stablecoins and yield-bearing tokens (such as treasury-backed tokens) are expected to see explosive growth. Currently valued at $220 billion, they could surge to $3 to $5 trillion by 2030, fueled by commercial adoption, financial innovation, and the growing demand for on-chain yield. Tokenized RWAs are no longer a niche experiment—they are evolving into a foundational infrastructure for settlements and payments across capital markets. Blockchain’s ability to enable instant transactions allows for seamless movement between tokenized RWAs and digital assets, making traditional financial rails increasingly obsolete.

The Inevitable Tokenization Revolution

Industry leaders, including the CEOs of BlackRock and JPMorgan, have already acknowledged that tokenization is inevitable, and their strategic investments reflect this belief. Critics may dismiss the idea of tokenizing trillions of dollars in real estate, equities, private equity, commodities, and bonds, but history suggests they will soon change their tune. In a few years, the same skeptics who doubt tokenization today will likely hail it as the most transformative financial innovation of the 21st century.

The question is not if all these assets can be tokenized—they can. The real question is how quickly different asset classes will embrace this transformation. Some industries will adapt swiftly, while others will experience gradual but profound change. Whether through new asset issuance, the rise of tokenized assets, or the migration of legacy financial instruments on-chain, this shift is already in motion.

A New Framework for Tokenization Forecasting

Past projections—such as those from HSBC and Northern Trust—typically applied a nominal adoption rate (5–10%) to the total value of asset classes. Others, like Standard Chartered, focused on individual sectors, estimating that 14% of $30 trillion in assets by 2034 will come from trade finance.

At STM, we take a more comprehensive approach, analyzing the eight largest asset classes globally and identifying regulatory and government support as key catalysts for growth. For example, if California’s title registry were moved on-chain, the $10 trillion residential real estate market could be tokenized almost instantly.

Thanks to increasing regulatory clarity in the U.S. and the success of stablecoins, blockchain adoption is poised for rapid acceleration. By 2030, we project $50 trillion in annual trading of tokenized RWAs, marking one of the most significant shifts in global finance.

Tokenization isn’t just a passing trend—it’s the future of finance. And that future is arriving sooner than most expect.

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